Finding
IRA exposure increased venture entry where incentives directly matched firm technologies.
Climate-Tech Vertical Ledger
Climate-Tech Vertical Ledger
Policy Credibility Index
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) · 2026
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires private risk capital, but policy scale alone does not explain where that capital moves. The paper studies how the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act changed venture funding in climate technologies and why the institutional credibility of each policy commitment mattered.
The live terminal keeps the paper's six load-bearing IRA policy units intact, then updates only from official policy documents and public source citations.
Figure 1
PCI is the simple average of specificity, durability, and enforceability. The terminal state is driven by current evidence, source citations, and source refresh timing.
The paper explains the empirical result. The terminal turns the same PCI logic into a live evidence loop: official documents, score updates, source citations, and source freshness.
IRA exposure increased venture entry where incentives directly matched firm technologies.
Investors reacted to statutory specificity, durability, and enforceability, not only subsidy size.
A live credibility surface needs normalized provisions, source freshness, and method trace.
@article{cao2026credibility,
title={Whether industrial policy mobilizes private capital depends on the credibility of its commitments},
author={Cao, Yikai and Eesley, Charles and Jain, Rishee and Moorjani, Dinesh},
journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
year={2026}
}